the trouble with testing extraordinary claims

Despite dangling a million dollar prize, with updated bank statements that it's legit, for a demonstration of a supernatural ability, James Randi has very few takers.

If you're a regular reader of this blog, you've probably heard of James Randi, the professional magician who's offering a million dollar prize for a successful demonstration of supernatural abilities. One would think that the seemingly endless stream of professional psychics, dowsers and mystics would be tearing down the doors of JREF for a quick and easy payday, as well as the media attention their demonstrations will generate. But in all the time the award has been offered, only amateurs have unsuccessfully tried their luck. Why? Randi gives us a few good reasons at his TED talk in 2007, while reissuing his challenge to cranks, quacks and frauds…

All right, so talking to the dead and waiving an amulet to find cards or hidden treasure through your supposed mystical powers is one thing. The professionals know it's all a trick and they run a very lucrative scam. Those who really think they have supernatural powers don't know their limitations, aim for the big prize, and fail. Last year, I watched one the applicants taking on the challenge live at TAM, testing her skills to a great double blind experiment the details of which she agreed. And failed in every single trial, which should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with dowsers. Funny thing is that if we were to tabulate Sylvia Browne's track record, it turns out to be an equally dismal 0 for 115, through a combination of grossly incorrect predictions, or such a vague cold readings, they lead absolutely nowhere. In other words, Browne would do no better than an amateur who really thinks she can tap into mysterious cosmic vibrations of the universe. But what about the likes of Deepak Chopra and numerous homeopaths? Why don't they take up the challenge with their quantum woo?

Well, my thought is that the aforementioned cranks practicing quantum-hollistic alt med pseudosciences are absolutely sure they're just exploring another kind of science. They see themselves as trailblazing geniuses, or as iconoclasts shunned by the establishment, and craft conspiracy theories which paint all criticism of their work as nefarious schemes to suppress their knowledge out of greed. The very idea of entering what they want to present as cutting edge science that's light years ahead of what state of the art labs have to offer in a contest intended to challenge "supernatural claims" would likely be highly offensive to them. Remember that today's big name cranks are very temperamental and spoiled creatures, showered with plenty of money and media attention. Sharing the stage with glorified fortunetellers and self-appointed experts in the occult or the paranormal who claim to talk to the dead and see ghosts, would simply be beneath them…